Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
